Fuel for thought
Is it possible that we are about to run short of the source of a third of the world’s energy?
Is it possible that we are about to run short of the source of a third of the world’s energy?
Mark Braly reports from the German Government’s Renewables 2004 conference in Bonn, that “something else, not new but more urgently felt, was in the air at the conference. The expert consensus now holds that the peak of world oil production is near – if it has not already happened.”
The west should be embarking on a serious rather than cosmetic attempt at energy conservation. Those who hold out the prospect of a glittering medium-term future for the global economy are perhaps not in full possession of the facts.
Oil discoveries provide resources to some low-income countries on a scale that dwarfs aid. Yet their effects have often been adverse.
Asia’s economies have been able to withstand this year’s surge in oil prices but the relentless climb is starting to take its toll and high growth rates are now in jeopardy, analysts said.
Surprise! We’re in the midst of an oil shock and its impact could be as nasty as the first three, writes David Potts.
No oil company wants to be the first to face stock market meltdown by announcing their production is in decline, no government wants to be voted out for such bad news.
One expert has picked an Armageddon date for the peak of oil production: Thanksgiving 2005. The slow decline in world supplies will start then.
Although the former Soviet Union has pumped crude for years, only recently has Russia emerged as the world’s second-biggest oil exporter and — if the Bush administration has its way — a potentially important new supplier of both oil and gas to the United States. Russia’s crude oil production rivals that of Saudi Arabia, and analysts say its reserves could provide the output answer for the United States, China, South Korea and Japan, which have grown increasingly wary of their dependence on producers in the Middle East.
The doomsayers say they will stabilise at $70; the optimists argue they will tumble to $15. Outlook examines arguments on both sides of the oil divide.
“Powerdown” is a strategy that will require tremendous effort and economic sacrifice in order to reduce per-capita resource usage in wealthy countries, develop alternative energy sources, distribute resources more equitably, and reduce the human population humanely but systematically over time.
As the oil price rose to a new high of more than $44 a barrel this week, amid concerns about supply, OPEC’s president said the cartel was unable to pump more oil and thus bring down the price. He later contradicted these comments, but observers remain sceptical about OPEC’s ability to turn on more taps.