Incoherency Is the Weakness in Trump’s Armor – Strike There!

Politics is context; in today’s context, Washington is the last place climate activists should be showing up to plead their case. There’s little to be gained by a direct assault on the GOP members of Congress. And Democrats, for the most part, are already fighting to keep the Trump administration from rolling US environmental policy back to the 1950s.

With few exceptions, Republicans on Capitol Hill are unwilling to challenge President Trump. What he says goes, and he says anything climate-related is “woke.” Woke is simply a shorthand label for the “Them” to Trump’s “We.” More accurately, it’s “Everyone else” to Trump’s “Me.”

Trump’s I-centric policies are proving unsettling on a global scale and across wide political divides. Even the most sycophantic senators like Ted Cruz (R-TX) are nervous about Trump’s tariffs and the great possibility that they’ll trigger a worldwide recession – without sparing the US. Cruz’s concerns, and even those of Elon Musk (formerly known as the Co-President), do not seem to convince Trump that his policies are proving harmful on a global scale.

Trump not only works against the dreaded woke, but his emotion-based policies often work against his own stated goals and the interests of much of the MAGA base. Over 70 percent of rural Americans voted for the president in all three elections.

USAID buys (bought) about $2 billion in US agricultural projects a year. Musk’s DOGE pack castrated those programs. According to DJ Rhinehart:

This shutdown [of USAID] by the Trump administration reneges on contracts our government made with our own farmers. It leaves already harvested crops to potentially rot in storage while people die from hunger, and may result in being the last straw for a number of generational farmers in danger of losing their land.

Trump is targeting IRA funding that connects rural communities to the internet and appears willing to sacrifice the livelihood of farmers by killing the international food programs of USAID and making them the targets of tariff retaliation by China and other global markets. Farmers are just now getting over the damage caused by Trump’s 2018 Chinese tariffs.

Farmers aren’t Trump’s only friends suffering from his ill-thought policies. Here’s what an energy expert at the Atlantic Council think tank believes of Trump’s tariffs:

“There’s so much that’s deeply incoherent about this policy.”· Joe Webster

The tit-for-tat trade wars Trump is causing are nearly as troubling to his favored fossil fuel industry as it is to farmers and consumers. An oil industry expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Clayton Seigle, concludes:

“Even though the oil companies probably got the best-case scenario in terms of energy commodities, steel is probably one of the biggest input costs for oil and gas production.”

Trump’s steel tariffs aren’t the only problem for the fossil fuel industry. Trump’s recent tariffs and their impact on other countries, including their response, disrupt the supply chains needed to expand and strengthen the nation’s power grid(s). The energy demands of data centers and cryptocurrencies are enormous. Bitcoin’s electric consumption is comparable to Poland’s.

Whether powered by fossil fuels or sustainable energy sources like solar and wind, the grid needs materials like transformers largely brought in from overseas. The tariffs and other Trump policies will raise the cost of electricity to consumers and delay needed additions and improvements.

The president’s policies often conflict with each other. Battery manufacturing in red states is an example of onshoring and an industry critical to the utility and transportation sectors. Yet, Trump sees no incoherency in scrapping the IRA’s programs and causing investments in US manufacturing and auto industry jobs.

Notwithstanding the UAW’s support of the tariffs, the industry is going to take a significant hit because of the inflationary pressures they place on foreign and domestic vehicles. Trump’s efforts to halt the buildout of the EV infrastructure are also in opposition to the strength and competitiveness of the US auto industry. Red flag warnings on the recessionary nature of Trump’s policies are not lost on Republican voters.

Senator Cruz’s concerns over the tariffs are actually about the 2026 election. He worries that the economic disruption and likely inflation will result in a Republican “bloodbath.”

Cruz is hardly the only Republican worried about 2026. However, where Cruz worries about voters, others on Capitol Hill worry more about what Trump might do to them — should they deign to disagree.

“You’ve got everybody just like, zip lip, not saying a word because they’re afraid they’re going to be taken down. They’re going to be primaried. They’re going to be given names in the media.”· Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)

With few exceptions, e.g., Senators Murkowski (R-AK) and Collins (R-ME), Republican fear of the president trumps most anything the climate community would have to say to them. Democrats are in too few numbers to prevail without Republican support – albeit fewer than a half-dozen votes in either chamber are all that’s needed if the Democrats stay unified.

The widespread impact of Trump’s incoherent and often conflicting policies is proving as harmful to much of his base as it is to the “opposition.” As unsettling as his policies are, they offer the climate communities an opportunity to take their message directly to Republican voters.

Trump has made everything about the economy. It’s what won him the election. Live by the economy, die by the economy has been at the center of every presidential election since before the start of the century. It’s the theme on which climate activists need to focus their arguments in support of environmental sustainability. However, those arguments need to be “de-woked” if they are to succeed.

Rather than directly appealing to Capitol Hill Republicans and the White House, environmental activists need to go through Republican voters – asking them to carry the message to their senators and representatives. A successful approach to the MAGA-minded requires casting arguments in populist terms – ENVIRONMENT IS THE ECONOMY – leaving for another day discussions on other climate-related issues.

In fact, I’d recommend not using the words “climate change” at all. Trump understands that the Arctic’s melting glaciers are opening sea lanes suited to Russian and Chinese submarines. He attributes it to the weather. So, talk about the weather and how the rising temperatures are impacting it.

The next few months in Congress will be about GOP efforts to pass the president’s “one big beautiful” bill enacting his America First Agenda. Many – if not all – of those debates about the final bill will be behind closed doors. Democrats need not apply.

In those closed-door discussions, the major decisions on things like clean energy tax credits and continued availability of IRA funds for the intended purpose will take place. If Republican senators and representatives don’t hear about the importance of these to Republican voters, what chance is there of their escaping the woke reaper?

My advice? Allow Trump’s incoherency to speak for itself. Stay away from ad hominem and philosophical arguments.