As we all know, a dreadful new yet familiar regime is about to begin across the pond. Meet the new President, same as the old President: …I mean, the 2016-2020 President.
Or perhaps worse: for this time he has a plan.
The election of a climate-denier as United States President has left many people disillusioned and anxious about the future of climate action. Is the game up? With the prospect of environmental policies being rolled back and a leader who openly rejects the science of climate, there’s a very real risk that many will simply give up. The overwhelming sense of inevitability may lead to a fatalistic resignation: if the government won’t act, why should we?
However, such giving up would be disastrous: and is not called for. What is called for is a pivot. This is exactly the moment when we need to pivot toward a more pragmatic and resilient strategy, one that can be done pretty effectively bottom-up, one that needs to be done now no matter what—one centring climate adaptation. Meaning: a strategy that places preparedness for and resilience against impacts front and centre. Instead of being paralyzed by inaction at the top, we must focus more on what can be done at the grassroots level, both at home and abroad. Climate decline is no longer a future threat—it’s already here, and it’s already happening. Adaptation is not just necessary; centring it is the only viable path forward.
To be very clear: this is not giving up on climate ‘mitigation’. Far from it. What we are talking about is a kind of adaptation that includes decarbonisation organically within it. And moreover what we are talking about is a strategy that will act as a ‘mindbomb’, as adaptation talk and adaptation-action explodes inside people’s reality. When adaptation is taken seriously, then by definition we are believing in the emergency, because adaptation is here and now. Once people are really starting to act as if the crisis is real, then momentum can grow again for decarbonisation. Momentum which otherwise has, we have to plainly admit, very badly stalled, and even gone into reverse.
In Spring 2025, the Climate Majority Project will launch the ‘SAFER’ campaign. At the heart of the SAFER campaign (www.ClimateMajorityProject.com/SAFER ) is a fundamental shift in the climate narrative: a pivot towards a strategy centring climate adaptation of a strategic and transformative kind. As already noted, this approach is critical, not only in addressing the inevitable impacts of climate breakdown but also in reinforcing broader climate action efforts. Adaptation needs to be integrated into every conversation and strategy, from policy frameworks to everyday choices. And if it is done so, then there will be an unexpected beneficiary…
The New Ally of Mitigation
Adaptation-centrism is emerging as an unexpected ally of mitigation (aka decarbonisation). While mitigation—reducing greenhouse gas emissions—has long been the cornerstone of climate action, the stark reality of the climate crisis now, in 2025, under Trump et al, calls for a broader approach. By embracing adaptation, we can accelerate and amplify mitigation efforts! Because climate adaptation is the ultimate in wake-up calls.
When the effects of climate damage are directly felt—whether through extreme weather events, rising sea levels, or crop failures—people become more likely to take action in relation to climate across the board. Transformative adaptation—a key aspect of the SAFER framework—helps to reframe adaptation not as a retreat or substitute for mitigation, but as a complementary and necessary strategy.
So, supporting adaptation (of the right kind) isn’t an alternative to ‘mitigation’: it is quite simply now one of the very most effective ways to drive mitigation. Prepared communities, resilient to climate impacts, are more likely to adopt practices that reduce emissions. Ecosystem-based adaptation, for example, can support both environmental protection and emission reductions, creating a positive feedback loop.
The Need for Global Adaptation Efforts
The climate movement has been missing a trick by being so fixated on decarbonisation, in a manner that has not resonated with portions of the population not already convinced. Climate consciousness has up until now been primarily focused on reducing emissions, often ignoring the fact that climate impacts are (increasingly) already here—and worsening by the day. If we don’t act swiftly and seriously on adaptation, we risk facing even more severe consequences, disrupting communities, economies, and ecosystems worldwide.
This is the very real risk of “derailment,” as described by Laurie Laybourn et al. (Derailment-LaurieLaybourn ) If climate impacts continue to devastate countries without the necessary preparation, we’ll see a collapse in interest and investment in both climate mitigation and global cooperation. Instead of looking toward long-term solutions, nations will become preoccupied with short-term survival.
Moreover, it’s critical to bear in mind that climate impacts disproportionately affect countries with the lowest carbon footprints. These countries, often already struggling with poverty, are suffering the most from climate disasters, even though they are not the primary contributors to the crisis. It is essential that global efforts to adapt are not just focused on high-emission countries, but on those most vulnerable to the impacts of climate decline. And if they are, then those countries will become enlisted to the cause far more effectively. (smallest-footprints-largest-impacts/UNTrade )
We can no longer afford to wait for a perfect solution in mitigation—adaptation is the critical bridge that allows us to cope with what’s already happening and protect what we can.
The Reality of Behavior Change
Shifting global behavior is never easy, and large-scale more or less voluntary behavior change can often feel like an insurmountable challenge. However, the harsh reality is that massive changes are coming—whether we like it or not. As climate disasters increase in frequency and intensity, humanity will be forced to adapt, often with painful consequences.
At the end of the day, this isn’t voluntary at all.
For this change, while disruptive, quite simply is also inevitable. As I argued nearly a decade ago now, our civilization is at a critical juncture. If we are strategic and resourceful, we can use the very deterioration of our climate as an opportunity for positive transformation rather than allowing it to be our undoing.
The Role of Adaptation in Building Resilience
The devastating impacts of recent events, such as last autumn’s floods, and the recent LA fires, are grim reminders of the urgency of adaptation. Initially, much of the push for adaptation may focus on short-term, reactive measures—what some might, fairly, call “defensive adaptation” or “reactive adaptation” or “shallow adaptation”. These are the immediate, often more straightforwardly politically acceptable responses to climate threats.
However, over time, this can—and must—evolve into something more transformative. Just as we must change our approach to mitigation, we must rethink how we adapt. Strategic adaptation must and can integrate not only defense against climate impacts but also the broader goals of resilience, ecosystem restoration, and long-term sustainability. (Strategic-Adaptation/TimesRadio )
The Bottom Line: A New Strategy for Change
The climate crisis has reached a tipping point. The mitigation-focused strategies that dominated climate discourse in the past decade were worth trying, but it’s now clear they are out of time. We can definitely no longer rely solely on a tech-centric, emission-reduction approach. Climate decline is happening, and we must act accordingly. Adaptation must become the central focus of our climate strategy—not as a backup plan, but as the core of the way forward.
The SAFER strategy is ambitious, even audacious. But in the face of escalating climate impacts, it’s clear that it is our best chance at building a more resilient future. As Trump takes power again, be empowered yourself… the time to pivot toward a strategy centred on adaptation is now.
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For more on the SAFER campaign, visit www.ClimateMajorityProject.com/SAFER
Check out ‘Transformative Adaptation’, published by Permanent Publications https://www.permanentpublications.co.uk/port/transformative-adaptation/
The reality is we are too late to do anything unless you have already started growing your own food, have firewood for heating and community.
Hi Mat,
I agree that we cannot stop the Titanic from hitting the ice berg. But I think there is always time to squeeze another passenger into a life boat.
And there is almost always some ability to redirect economic activity and invest in something likely to be more viable long term. Riding your single family suburban home investment into operating energy cost induced bankruptcy is not wise. Getting rid of that "asset" and saving cost by moving in with another family would be wiser. And if you can sell the house and use any proceeds to make doubling up more comfortable and energy efficient, all the better. Didn't JMG say something like "crash now and avoid the rush?" Lol.
The three cornerstones of ecological survival are – adjustment, adaptation, genetic evolution. As a living biota, humans Do Not have choices. We are no different from any other biota, except that more often we probably flood our brains with panic chemistry, and then soothe those brains with maladaptive chemistry, which leads to false conclusions and confusions. I have worked in the natural world for more than 60 years. We have millions of specific examples of how these three cornerstone behaviors work, and work well. Clearing our brains of confusion is the first step to making these behaviors work for not only us, but most if not all remaining biota. The first step in efficient use of these strategies is to learn the process of scientific thought – detached observation, being aware of useless bias, description, inventory, detection of contextual relationships, discovery of internal/external threats/aids, awareness of existing adjustments within the observed systems, analyses of how/why those adjustments work and what are realized outcomes, further observation to discover the extent to which adjustments require longer term adaptations, i.e., sustained behaviors across time. Ecology is an energy-based system of survival. You could roughly compare it to a human system of economy, but not one in which laissez faire behaviors control outcomes. In all successful instances, from a single behavior to an entire biodiverse system, more energy, regardless of origin, must be created and conserved than energy used/lost. Inefficiency is a result of the presence of entropy, uncertainty, ensuing chaos and the lag time between these factors and creative rescue, recovery and renewal. The foundation of all potential energies used/stored/wasted is the presence of sunlight, water and photosynthesizing organisms. Photons are a given, but fluctuate via both normal and erratic interventions, i.e., ice/water, clouds/clear sky, seasons, hydrologic cycles, forest/grassland vs. desert, Water responds to photonic energy in many ways, often entropically, so photosynthesizing organisms modulate and temper this. The planet exists as a viable lifeform entirely due to the plant world and its crucial substrate, microbiology, whether on land or in water. Learning the process of storing energy vs. wasting it is the first step in surviving humanity's egregious ignorance about survival in a biodiverse world. There are many human factors that disrupt this, but paramount are toxicity, overpopulation, over-consumption leading to low quality biotic health, and disruptions in the climatology reliance of complex biotic systems. To survive for the past 66 million years, biota have learned how to harmoniously exist within this shared system of energy storage vs. use. The human paradigm of violence/warfare/conquest/control/fear/hyper-consumption/absence of real-time mitigations/psychological denials of responsible compensations leading to massive toxicity MUST be dismantled, individually and collectively as a species, prior to any meaningful course changes that avert extinction. Talk is primarily useless, most words are poison. Humility and acceptance of responsibility for current conditions will lead to correct ways of action that might, with a very low probability right now, keep a few million useful humans alive by 2100. Right now, we will be lucky to make it to 2040 without irreversible catastrophe. Just sayin'.
It would be helpful to have some clear examples of what a shift in investment from mitigation to adaptation would look like.
The UK is in a very tenuous place. Most national coal is exhausted and Russia was the largest supplier of coal. The North Sea oil and natural gas peaked years back and is in long term decline. Importing biofuel from the US is an EROI breakeven or negative venture. The UK nuclear sector is aging out (along with much of the worlds nuclear power).
Russia Europe's major gas supplier is now in a position to dictate UK policy. The US is unlikely to remain a reliable LNG supplier to Europe. The US sells to the highest bidder. And eventually domestic natural gas prices will rise high enough the LNG export terminals may be forced to shut down.
Foot dragging on a fast transition to renewable energy and high efficiency building stock means the UK is still trapped using these imported fossil fuels.
UK Gas based industries, like plastic and fertilizer are shutting down. The citizenry cannot afford heat.
How will adaptation help that? The only option is a dramatic drop in energy usage and renewable energy to supply that resource. Otherwise even safe buildings on the "high ground" will not be able to afford enough energy to operate. The world faces a polycrisis: both depletion of fuels and resources AND pollution buildup (ex. co2) as issues. Unless the vision of adaptation incorporates a dramatic drop in energy usage per capita, it is just another route to poverty and the misery of doing without.
Is the UK using much coal now? Its last coal-fired power plant is shut down, right?
https://www.wri.org/news/statement-uk-eliminates-coal-power-generation
So, is coal being used for manufacturing?
In any case, the affordability problems you mention have ben inevitable for decades. In 1970, humanity began using Earth's resources faster than they could be replenished. Our overshoot is now about 75%, meaning we'd need 1.75 Earths to provide, sustainably, the resources we're using.
https://overshoot.footprintnetwork.org/
We need to be resilient, to withstand the crash–probably including depopulation–that seems to be coming.
You are right, not much now.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_the_United_Kingdom
The discovery of of the North Sea oil and natural gas allowed the UK to switch from coal mining (which peaked in the 1910's) to natural gas. After the peak the UK imported Russian and US coal. Part of the coal phaseout was an attempt to switch to bio-fuel in old coal power plants. But the EROI of that is very low (basically spending oil to ship wood pellets from more southerly regions with a longer growing season and more water north to the UK).
Moving from coal to natural gas or oil transported bio-fuel is going from one depleted resource to another depleting resource. That works for a little while, but it is a strategy destined to fail long term.
The UK will soon be filled with natural gas furnaces and NG power plants they cannot afford to operate. Thus the UK must choose mitigation. Adaption, using existing energy sources, is not a viable option.
Unless these adaptation measures focus on building distributed and highly efficient buildings that operate using electricity (or local biomass) then they are just another dead end effort that will result in stranded assets.
Agreed. Then again, is all this moot, if the AMOC shuts down? https://tos.org/oceanography/article/is-the-atlantic-overturning-circulation-approaching-a-tipping-point
I think the threat of the AMOC shutting down due to rising carbon emissions just puts another nail in the coffin of adaptation. How do you adapt to a little ice age? You need more energy! And the fossil sources are depleting. Mitigation (switching to a non fossil energy source) is the only way out. Sadly, for the UK and the world, because of climate induced damage and falling fossil fuel EROI the amount that can be invested in mitigation is falling. Thus even mitigation as a way out is narrowing in a bottleneck that will allow fewer and fewer people through it. It is tragic.